1-519-492-1727
The Guelph housing market has been firmly in buyer’s market territory for most of 2025. Earlier in the summer, we saw a few signs of stability that offered some encouragement, but those gains appear to have slipped, to some degree, back in favour of buyers.
Today, the story of the market is not subtle. Homes are sitting longer, inventory has climbed to levels we haven’t seen in years, and sales activity has slowed. Prices, however, remain surprisingly steady. For buyers, this translates into leverage and choice. For sellers, it means navigating a far more competitive environment where pricing, presentation, and strategy are critical.
The most striking trend this year has been the climb in months of inventory (MOI). Overall inventory trends have been climbing gradually since early 2023, culminating into today’s current market high.
What this means on the ground is that there is simply more available housing stock relative to demand. Buyers who were once faced with limited choice now have a wide range of options. In many cases, that level of selection feels almost overwhelming.
This inventory dynamic has a direct effect on negotiating leverage. Buyers know they can walk away from one home and find several similar options. That freedom allows them to negotiate harder on both price and conditions, putting sellers on the defensive.
Supporting that picture is another clear signal: the average days on market is near the top of the range we’ve seen in recent years. Homes are taking longer to sell, with some listings lingering well past the point where they would have moved quickly in previous cycles.
For buyers, this offers breathing room. Instead of rushing to submit offers within hours or days, they now have the time to weigh options, revisit properties, and negotiate terms with greater confidence.
For sellers, the flip side is sobering. Overpricing or under-preparing a listing can quickly push a property into “stale” territory, forcing eventual price adjustments or tougher negotiations down the line.
Both transaction volume and new listings have slowed since the spring. On the surface, this might sound like a balancing factor, but in practice, it hasn’t been enough to offset the surge in inventory.
Many sellers are holding back from listing unless they have a compelling reason to move. Those who do list are often finding the path to a sale longer and more complicated. On the demand side, fewer buyers are stepping forward, which only adds to the slower pace.
In effect, the market is experiencing a kind of stalemate: fewer people listing, fewer people buying, and yet inventory is building as homes linger on the market longer than before.
Despite all of these headwinds, average prices have remained resilient. This is one of the more interesting dynamics in today’s market. Historically, high inventory and longer days on market would put obvious downward pressure on pricing. Yet so far, sellers have been reluctant to concede significant ground.
This stickiness creates a standoff. Buyers enter negotiations expecting deals, while sellers resist slashing prices, pointing to comparables from earlier this year or late 2024 as evidence of value. The outcome is often extended negotiation cycles, incremental adjustments, or deals falling through when expectations can’t align.
For buyers, this means patience is key. Opportunities are there, but they may come through negotiation rather than a broad drop in average prices. For sellers, it reinforces the need for realism. Overconfidence in list pricing can quickly backfire in this climate.
Beyond the raw numbers, psychology plays an outsized role in shaping today’s conditions. Many buyers are hesitant, holding out in hopes of timing the “bottom” of the market.
The risk, of course, is that the bottom is only visible in hindsight. By waiting too long, buyers may miss the opportunity that’s already in front of them: abundant choice, slower cycles, and strong negotiating leverage.
This is where the analogy to value equity investing comes into focus. Just as investors who try to perfectly time stock markets often miss the best entry points, homebuyers who wait for absolute certainty risk losing today’s advantages. The buyers who recognize long-term value and act decisively will likely look back and realize they purchased in a uniquely favourable window.
For sellers, today’s market demands a strategic approach.
For buyers, this is one of the most favourable landscapes in years.
It’s worth noting that earlier in the year, the market showed glimpses of stability. Activity hinted that balance might be returning. That interlude was short-lived, and conditions have since slid, to some degree, back into buyer territory.
That flicker of balance matters. It’s a reminder that while today’s market feels firmly one-sided, real estate conditions are fluid. The current leverage won’t last forever, and shifts can emerge quickly when underlying factors change.
Navigating these conditions is complex. As a REALTOR® in Guelph, I see both sides of the equation: buyers who are eager to maximize leverage, and sellers who are determined not to undersell their homes. Both perspectives are valid, but success requires realistic expectations and informed strategy.
As a strategic Guelph partner and real estate agent, my role is to cut through the noise — to help buyers recognize genuine opportunity, and to help sellers position their homes effectively in a competitive environment.
The Guelph housing market is offering something we haven’t seen in years: leverage, selection, and breathing room for buyers. At the same time, average prices have held relatively firm, reminding us that real estate is as much about psychology and confidence as it is about raw supply and demand.
For buyers, the opportunity is real. For sellers, the challenge is clear. The key for both is to adapt to the market as it is today, not as it was yesterday. Because in real estate, conditions never stay still for long.
—
Brady Veitch, REALTOR®
Red Brick Real Estate Brokerage
DealWithBrady.ca